000 AXNT20 KNHC 121823 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE AT 12/1500 UTC IS NEAR 19.1N 47.6W. NADINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NADINE MAY BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 NM/185 KM FROM THE CENTER. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 46W AND 48W...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 55W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 16N16W... TO 16N21W TO 11N27W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS INDISTINCT AFTER 11N27W GIVEN THE 30W TROPICAL WAVE AND TROPICAL STORM NADINE. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 7N46W AND IT ENDS NEAR 6N54W ALONG THE COASTS OF FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N13W 7N18W 4N30W 3N35W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 38W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 15W AND 22W...POSSIBLY RELATED TO THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...THAT HAS NOT BEEN ADDED TO THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS YET. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N88W TO 19N88W IN THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A STATIONARY FRONT CUTS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA COAST...THROUGH 22N79W IN CUBA...TO 19N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 16N85W NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES IN MEXICO NEAR 23N102W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM FLORIDA TO THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL FLORIDA...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 72W AND 81W FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N56W TO 29N60W AND 25N70W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 24N80W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO 27N90W...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA...ALONG THE REST OF THE LOUISIANA COAST TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 24N IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 28N BETWEEN 82W AND 88W...AND FROM 26N IN THE WATER TO 30N IN THE COASTAL PLAINS BETWEEN 91W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 95W AND 97W/98W AT THE MEXICO COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 11N88W...ABOUT 100 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 8N TO 18N BETWEEN 78W AND 92W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN CENTRAL HISPANIOLA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N59W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N63W...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N65W...TO THE VENEZUELA COAST NEAR 11N68W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 57W AND 75W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N74W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 7N84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 82W...AND IN THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA AND ALONG THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER ALONG 77W/78W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 12/1200 UTC FOR TRINIDAD WAS 0.78 INCHES...AND FOR GUADELOUPE 0.28 INCHES. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 78W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N51W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 29N56W...TO 24N61W...TO A 20N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N65W. A STATIONARY FRONT STARTS NEAR 32N56W TO 29N60W AND 25N70W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 24N80W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO 27N90W...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA...ALONG THE REST OF THE LOUISIANA COAST TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W...AND FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W 28N64W 24N70W... AND FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 48W AND 54W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 35N29W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 10W AND 44W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO 28N28W TO 31N34W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 20W AND 41W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N41W TO 23N33W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM NADINE. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 29N60W 25N70W 24N80W. EXPECT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 70W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT