000 AXNT20 KNHC 100547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE MICHAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 33.6N 44.4W AT 10/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 887 NM WSW OF THE AZORES MOVING W AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 32N-34N BETWEEN 41W-45W. TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS CENTERED NEAR 34.4N 61.8N AT 10/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 195 NM NE OF BERMUDA MOVING NNE AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/ WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA. CONVECTION IS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF LESLIE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 32N60W 35N59W TO 37N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 31N-38W BETWEEN 58W-67W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 23N32W ALONG 18N34W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 15N34W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. LOW IS WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF VERY DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 34W-38W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WNW AT 13 TO 17 KT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NO OTHER TROPICAL WAVES ARE NOTED. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 19N16W CONTINUING ALONG 13N26W THROUGH THE 1008 MB LOW ALONG 9N42W TO 9N50W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 11N58W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 18N44W TO 13N38W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 30W-36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 16W-19W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 56W-62W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE US E OF 100W DIPPING S OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO TO 28N AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 10/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF JUST N OF TAMPA CONTINUING W TO 28N85W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF TO INLAND OVER MEXICO JUST N OF TAMPICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N87W EXTENDING A TROUGH AXIS N TO NEAR KEY WEST FLORIDA AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 10/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM 23N87W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO N GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL SAG SE FROM TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO 27N87W BY MON MORNING WHERE IT TOO WILL BECOME STATIONARY BY TUE AND WED DISSIPATING BY THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N AND NE THROUGH FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N87W COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE S OF THE UPPER TROUGH S OF 18N W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF 10N. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS REMARKABLY CLEAR TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE MICHAEL AND TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ARE N OF 32N. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE US W OF 75W DIPPING S OVER THE W ATLC N OF 28N AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 10/0300 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 32N75W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 21N61W ALONG 25N55W 29N54W TO 33N55W TRAILING INTO TROPICAL STORM LESLIE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 33N25W ALONG 26N42W TO A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 22N67W. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATES SAHARAN DUST COVERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC FROM 15N-28N E OF 30W AND A SWATH WRAPPING AROUND TO THE W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM 32N67W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MON NIGHT FROM 32N59W TO 28N54W THEN STATIONARY TO THE N BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT BECOMING DIFFUSE BY THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N THROUGH FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW