000 AXNT20 KNHC 071152 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI SEP 07 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LESLIE AT 07/1200 UTC IS NEAR 26.7N 62.0W. LESLIE IS STATIONARY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 NM FROM THE CENTER. SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...THE U.S.A. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT BULLETINS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY EARLY SUNDAY. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY... MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 61W AND 62W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W. THE CENTER OF CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE MICHAEL AT 07/0900 UTC IS NEAR 31.0N 40.8W. MICHAEL IS MOVING NORTHWARD 3 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 90 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 110 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON MICHAEL THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON MICHAEL ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 22 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 NM FROM THE CENTER. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W. MICHAEL FINDS ITSELF IN THE MIDDLE OF A TRIANGLE OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS. ONE SUCH CENTER IS NEAR 35N34W...A SECOND ONE IS NEAR 28N32W...AND A THIRD CENTER IS NEAR 25N46W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NONE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W...TO THE NORTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N25W...TO 12N40W AND 9N48W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N48W TO 9N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 17W AND 21W...ISOLATED MODERATE IS ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 19N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS... ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 34N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 30N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS TO THE EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...THROUGH 24N79W IN BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...ANDROS ISLAND...AND CUBA...TO 17N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS COVERING CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA TO EL SALVADOR...AND IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO...HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. ONLY SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND IN THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE BETWEEN 99W AND 103W. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IN THE ALONG THE COAST FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO MEXICO IS NORTHEASTERLY. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES IN MEXICO NEAR 26N101W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N TO 33N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE 34N72W-TO-GULF OF HONDURAS TROUGH COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N89W...ABOUT 63 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF LOUISIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS AWAY FROM THE CENTER...FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W. ELSEWHERE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK AND FLAT THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE AREA. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ON TOP OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 34N72W-TO-GULF OF HONDURAS MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 34N72W-TO-GULF OF HONDURAS TROUGH. THE WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH IS LARGELY EASTERLY...MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 20N45W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BEFORE CURVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH PANAMA NEAR 8N81W...BEYOND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 79W AND 84W...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO 12N83W...AND THE PANAMA COAST ALONG 78W. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 68W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE MICHAEL FINDS ITSELF IN THE MIDDLE OF A TRIANGLE OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS. ONE SUCH CENTER IS NEAR 35N34W...A SECOND ONE IS NEAR 28N32W... AND A THIRD CENTER IS NEAR 25N46W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 28N32W CENTER TO 25N36W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 25N46W CENTER TO 21N45W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE AREA OF HURRICANE LESLIE REACHING 37N56W. THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LESLIE RIDGE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD...MERGING WITH THE INDIVIDUAL WIND FLOW REGIMES THAT ARE MOVING AROUND THE 28N32W CENTER AND THE 25N46W CENTER. THE WIND FLOW THAT IS NOT CAUGHT UP IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW OF THE CYCLONIC CENTERS BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 45W. THIS WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY REACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS ON TOP OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 28N29W AND 17N40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT