000 AXNT20 KNHC 070605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI SEP 07 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LESLIE AT 07/0300 UTC IS NEAR 26.5N 62.2W. LESLIE IS STATIONARY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 139 NM FROM THE CENTER. SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...THE U.S.A. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT BULLETINS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 62W...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 74W. THE EYE OF CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE MICHAEL AT 07/0300 UTC IS NEAR 30.8N 40.8W. MICHAEL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD 4 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 90 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 100 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 22 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 NM FROM THE CENTER. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W. MICHAEL FINDS ITSELF IN THE MIDDLE OF A TRIANGLE OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS. ONE SUCH CENTER IS NEAR 36N36W...A SECOND ONE IS NEAR 28N35W...AND A THIRD CENTER IS NEAR 27N46W. A NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28.5N 88.5W...ABOUT 50 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS AWAY FROM THE CENTER...WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 26N91W. SOME POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS EVEN THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE FAVORABLE. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NO TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE MAP ANALYSIS AT THIS TIME. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GAMBIA NEAR 14N17W... TO JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N25W... TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N27W...TO 12N40W AND 9N50W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N50W...TO 11N56W AND 10N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 15W AND 17W AND FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 26W AND 30W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 19W AND 21W AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 18N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS... ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 34N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 30N76W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS TO THE EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...THROUGH 24N79W IN BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...ANDROS ISLAND...AND CUBA... TO 17N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TOWARD THE GULF OF HONDURAS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA... SOUTHWESTERN HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR...AND IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IN THE ALONG THE COAST FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO MEXICO IS NORTHEASTERLY. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES IN MEXICO NEAR 26N101W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST STATES SIX HOURS AGO...HAS BECOME INDISTINCT. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE SPECIAL FEATURE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. PART OF THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RESPONDING TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 28N78W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD AS A RESULT OF THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH 30N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO NEAR 20N89W. A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N94W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...IN 18 HOURS THAT IS NEAR 28N89W...CHANGING LITTLE AT 24 HOURS...AND AS A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 29N88W...AT 48 HOURS. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 34N72W-TO-GULF OF HONDURAS MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 34N72W-TO-GULF OF HONDURAS TROUGH. THE WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH IS LARGELY EASTERLY...MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 20N45W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BEFORE CURVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH PANAMA NEAR 9N80W...BEYOND NORTHERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO 11N81W AND 10N80W...AND ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC COAST FROM WESTERN PANAMA TO NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS COMPARATIVELY FLAT AND WEAK AT THIS TIME. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... HURRICANE MICHAEL FINDS ITSELF IN THE MIDDLE OF A TRIANGLE OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS. ONE SUCH CENTER IS NEAR 36N36W...A SECOND ONE IS NEAR 28N35W... AND A THIRD CENTER IS NEAR 27N46W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 28N35W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 22N39W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 27N46W CENTER TO 22N44W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE AREA OF HURRICANE LESLIE REACHING 35N57W. THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LESLIE RIDGE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD...MERGING WITH THE INDIVIDUAL WIND FLOW REGIMES THAT ARE MOVING AROUND THE 28N35W CENTER AND THE 27N46W CENTER. THE WIND FLOW THAT IS NOT CAUGHT UP IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW OF THE CYCLONIC CENTERS BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 45W. THIS WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY REACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N65W... THROUGH 30N73W...TO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO NEAR 20N89W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 24N36W AND 14N49W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2... FOR DETAILS ABOUT HURRICANE LESLIE AND HURRICANE MICHAEL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT