000 AXNT20 KNHC 061751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU SEP 06 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE MICHAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 30.1N 41.3W AT 06/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 850 NM WSW OF THE AZORES MOVING NE AT 06 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 39W-44W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. HURRICANE LESLIE IS CENTERED NEAR 26.4N 62.4W AT 06/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 380 NM SSE OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 02 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 55W-64W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 59W-66W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N88W. SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW CENTER INLAND NEAR MOBILE BAY TO NEAR 32N87W AND SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 27N92W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE A COMPLEX OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER OCCURRING FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 87W-92W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NONE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO A 1013 MB MONSOONAL LOW NEAR 17N28W TO 09N50W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N50W TO 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 16W-21W...FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 25W-31W...AND FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 28W-38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 11W-16W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MOSTLY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS NEAR 32N97W AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NE OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS NEAR 28N76W. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IS THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION THAT IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AND BECOME ABSORBED BY A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC INTO THE SE GULF...THEN WESTWARD ALONG 24N TO EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...FAIR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 28N76W WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 78W. MOSTLY DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH THIS TROUGHING AS GENERALLY E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE OBSERVED W OF 80W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 82W-85W DUE MAINLY TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN E OF 80W IS UNDER MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT AND GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT TRADEWINDS. CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONDITIONS REMAINS TRANQUIL. THE E TO SE TRADEWINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS NEAR 28N76W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 22N80W OVER CENTRAL CUBA TO A BASE LOCATED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. WHILE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N65W TO A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N74W...THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 77W-80W...INCLUDING THE NW AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST... THE RATHER LARGE REACHING EXTENT OF HURRICANE LESLIE REMAINS N OF 21N BETWEEN 54W-68W. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF LESLIE...A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 20N54W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH PIERCING FROM THE CENTER NE TO 22N52W AND FROM THE CENTER TO THE SSW TO 18N54W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 52W-55W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM 22N44W TO THE SOUTH OF THE WEAK LOW NEAR 17N54W INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N62W. THE WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED ENERGY IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE CIRCULATION IS LESLIE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FINALLY...AS HURRICANE MICHAEL HEADS FOR THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 38W-42W...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC N OF 20N IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 47N22W. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SSW FROM THE HIGH CENTER ACROSS THE AZORES NEAR 38N28W TO AN AREA SE OF MICHAEL NEAR 26N36W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN