000 AXNT20 KNHC 061136 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU SEP 06 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LESLIE AT 06/0900 UTC IS NEAR 26.3N 62.4W. LESLIE IS ABOUT 380 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. LESLIE IS MOVING NORTHWARD 1 KNOT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 22 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 169 NM FROM THE CENTER. SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...THE U.S.A. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT BULLETINS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY... MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 42W AND 75W. MICHAEL BECOMES THE FIRST CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE OF THE 2012 HURRICANE SEASON. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHAEL AT 06/0900 UTC IS NEAR 29.6N 41.7W. MICHAEL IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 6 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 100 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 120 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 13 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 NM FROM THE CENTER. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W. THE 32N45W 30N48W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM SIX HOURS AGO IS LESS AND LESS WELL-DEFINED NOW...GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO THE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION THAT EXISTS AROUND HURRICANE MICHAEL. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH NOW REACHES TO 34N42W. A NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29.5N88W...ABOUT 50 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COASTAL BORDER OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 55 NM RADIUS OF 27.5N 89.5W...ABOUT 65 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF LOUISIANA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NONE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W... ACROSS THE NORTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N30W...TO 12N40W AND 10N48W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N48W...TO 11N56W AND 11N61W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 15W AND 18W AND FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 26W AND 30W... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 15.5N24W IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 15.5N32W AND 14.5N39W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 3.5N TO 7.5N TO THE EAST OF 24W AND FROM 6N TO 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS... ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 33N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 28N78W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA COAST...THROUGH 22N79W IN CUBA...TO 19N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 16N85W NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES IN MEXICO NEAR 23N102W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM FLORIDA TO THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL FLORIDA... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 72W AND 81W FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST STATES SIX HOURS AGO...HAS BECOME INDISTINCT. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE SPECIAL FEATURE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. PART OF THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RESPONDING TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 28N78W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD AS A RESULT OF THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THROUGH 29N75W...TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT STARTS NEAR 29.5N88W...IT MOVES TO 1008 MB POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 28N89W IN 24 HOURS...AND MOVES TO 1007 MB TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 28N89W IN 48 HOURS. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 33N74W 16N85W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 33N74W 16N85W TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH PANAMA NEAR 9N80W...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS...TO 17N85W AND 12N72W AT THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHEAST OF 4N78W 8N84W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS COMPARATIVELY FLAT AND WEAK AT THIS TIME. .PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N23W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 29N20W CYCLONIC CENTER AND TO 25N19W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 25N19W TO 27N34W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 27N34W TO A 26N37W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N40W 15N43W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 300 TO 400 NM TO THE EAST OF THE 26N37W 15N43W PART OF THE TROUGH. A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH 29N75W...TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N31W TO 24N32W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT HURRICANE LESLIE AND HURRICANE MICHAEL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT