000 AXNT20 KNHC 060602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU SEP 06 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE LESLIE AT 06/0300 UTC IS NEAR 26.2N 62.5W. LESLIE IS ABOUT 384 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. LESLIE IS MOVING NORTHWARD 2 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 22 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 169 NM FROM THE CENTER. SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...THE U.S.A. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT BULLETINS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY... MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 61W AND 63W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 58W AND 65W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 50W AND 75W. THE CENTER OF CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE MICHAEL AT 06/0500 UTC IS NEAR 29.4N 42.0W. MICHAEL IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 6 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 90 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 110 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 13 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 NM FROM THE CENTER. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 30N48W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W 31N50W 32N58W 33N62W. A NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ABOUT 55 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COASTAL BORDER OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON IF IT IS NECESSARY. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 28.5N89W...ABOUT 35 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF LOUISIANA. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NO TROPICAL WAVE IS EVIDENT AT THIS TIME. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 16N17W TO 18N22W...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N30W...TO 13N40W AND 11N46W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N46W... TO 12N54W AND 12N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 15W AND 18W AND FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 16N TO THE EAST OF 40W...FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS... ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 33N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 28N78W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA COAST...THROUGH 22N79W IN CUBA...TO 19N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 16N85W NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES IN MEXICO NEAR 23N103W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM FLORIDA TO THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 74W AND 81W FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST STATES...FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO GEORGIA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THEN DISSIPATING JUST BEFORE ENTERING THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE SPECIAL FEATURE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. PART OF THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS FEATURE IS RESPONDING TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 28N78W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD AS A RESULT OF THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THROUGH 28N78W...28N81W IN FLORIDA...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 25N95W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT STARTS NEAR 29N88W...MOVES TO 1007 MB POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 28N88W IN 24 HOURS...AND MOVES TO 1006 MB TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 28N89W IN 48 HOURS. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 33N74W 16N85W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 33N74W 16N85W TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...10N80W JUST TO THE NORTH OF PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N83W 14N77W 13N74W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 76W IN COLOMBIA AND 84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. .PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N22W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 29N22W CYCLONIC CENTER AND TO 26N21W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 26N21W TO 27N34W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 27N34W TO A 27N38W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N40W 17N42W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 280 TO 400 NM TO THE EAST OF THE 27N34W 17N42W PART OF THE TROUGH. A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N70W THROUGH 28N78W...28N81W IN FLORIDA...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 25N95W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 25N36W AND 14N52W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2... FOR DETAILS ABOUT HURRICANE LESLIE AND HURRICANE MICHAEL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT