000 AXNT20 KNHC 051140 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED SEP 05 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AT 05/0900 UTC IS NEAR 25.4N 62.9W. LESLIE IS ABOUT 425 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. LESLIE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 2 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTER. SWELLS THAT ARE BEING GENERATED BY LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA...THE U.S.A. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD...THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT BULLETINS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/ WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY... MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. HIGH CLOUDS FROM LESLIE ARE SWEEPING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 60W TO 75W NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL AT 05/0900 UTC IS NEAR 28.1N 43.9W. MICHAEL IS MOVING NORTHWARD 4 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. MICHAEL IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 NM FROM THE CENTER. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AREA THAT IS NEAR THE CENTER OF MICHAEL TO 23N45W TO 17N48W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 28N TO 29N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. THE MAJOR PART OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OF THIS BULLETIN...TO THE NORTH OF 32N. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH REACHES 29N BETWEEN 44W AND 70W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 31N49W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N49W TO 31N57W AND 31N61W. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 31N61W BEYOND BERMUDA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W 29N50W BEYOND 32N44W...AND FROM 31N TO 35N BETWEEN 38W AND 41W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A POORLY-DEFINED ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W FROM 11N TO 19N. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 13 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 15N30W 10N40W AND 9N46W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N46W...CURVING TO 8N51W 10N53W AND 10N59W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 14N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 29W AND 33W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS... ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 33N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 26N79W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO 22N80W IN CUBA...TO 20N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 20N84W...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 20N...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE MEXICO GULF COAST ALONG 23N...TO A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN MEXICO NEAR 20N101W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 32N TO THE WEST OF 75W...NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W...TO INTERIOR MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GEORGIA AND ALABAMA...AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER FROM 29N NORTHWARD TO A 1010 MB CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI LOW PRESSURE CENTER. SOME COMPUTER MODELS PUSH THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N87W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND THE 1016 MB HIGH CENTER. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN 48 HOURS NEAR 28N89W...WITHIN 120 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER...WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF JAMAICA. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST OF JAMAICA IS RELATED TO THE LARGER-SCALE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND TROPICAL STORM LESLIE. THE REST OF THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST OF JAMAICA IS RELATED TO A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 9.5N73W ALONG THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 9N IN THE GULF OF URABA TO 15N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W NEAR NICARAGUA. .PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N75W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 21N36W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2... FOR DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM LESLIE... AND TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT