000 AXNT20 KNHC 040551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AT 04/0300 UTC IS NEAR 24.0N 63.1W. LESLIE IS ABOUT 380 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. LESLIE IS STATIONARY AT THE MOMENT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 178 NM FROM THE CENTER. SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE MAY AFFECT SOME OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. SWELLS ALSO WILL AFFECT BERMUDA AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE SWELLS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT BULLETINS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 250 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 32N BETWEEN 46W AND 70W. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN AT 04/0300 UTC IS NEAR 25.9N 42.8W. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 4 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 22N40W AND 17N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 33N39W...FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W...AND FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 48W AND 49W. THE MAJOR PART OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OF THIS BULLETIN...TO THE NORTH OF 32N. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH REACHES 32N BETWEEN 53W AND BERMUDA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 33N/34N BETWEEN 56W AND 67W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 52W AND 61W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A POORLY-DEFINED ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N35W 16N36W 13N37W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD SINCE THE 03/0600 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE BORDER OF MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL NEAR 16N16W...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 14N30W 11N38W AND 11N45W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N45W TOWARD TRINIDAD NEAR 10N/11N ALONG 61W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W...AND FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS... ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 26N79W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO 22N80W IN CUBA...TO 20N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 20N...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO AN ILL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N97W IN MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W... FROM CUBA TO 28N BETWEEN 75W AND 81W...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 80W. EARLIER PRECIPITATION THAT COVERED THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN GUATEMALA AND 100W HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W...TO 26N90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND 25N98W IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N87W TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF JAMAICA. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE LARGER-SCALE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND TROPICAL STORM LESLIE. THE REST OF THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W...STRONG IN TWO CELLS IN COLOMBIA FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ONE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 24N35W. A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N51W...ABOUT 525 NM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN. A SECOND SURFACE EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N72W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N77W...TO NICARAGUA NEAR 13N85W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2... FOR DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM LESLIE...AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT