000 AXNT20 KNHC 032355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS CENTERED NEAR 24.0N 63.1W AT 03/2100 UTC. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...OR ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM S OF BERMUDA. LESLIE IS MOVING NNW AT 3 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT GUSTING TO 60 KT. LESLIE PRESENTLY HAS 20 KT OF NW SHEAR DISPLACING MOST OF THE CONVECTION S OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 59W-65W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN IS CENTERED NEAR 25.6N 42.2W AT 03/2100 UTC. THIS LOCATION IS ABOUT 1350 MI...2170 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. T.D. THIRTEEN IS MOVING WNW AT 3 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 40W-43W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N35W TO 13N37W MOVING W AT 10KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF N SENEGAL AT 16N16W TO 14N30W TO 12N38W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 12N38W TO 12N50W TO TRINIDAD AT 10N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 20W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 33W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W WITH FAIR WEATHER. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE GOING AROUND THE HIGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N FLORIDA N OF 30N. FURTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA S OF 26N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 18N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS HOWEVER CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W HELPING TO PRODUCE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S FLORIDA. EXPECT... ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM T.S. LESLIE ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 18N BETWEEN 60W-65W. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 18N. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 77W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W HELPING TO PRODUCE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N71W HELPING TO PRODUCE SHEAR OVER T.S. LESLIE. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... T.S. LESLIE AND T.D. THIRTEEN ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N BAHAMAS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 76W-79W. FURTHER E...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 57W-60W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N72W. ANOTHER 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N53W. DRY SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 IMAGERY N OF 20N E OF 38W. EXPECT...NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER THE N BAHAMAS DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA