000 AXNT20 KNHC 031146 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AT 03/0900 UTC IS NEAR 23.8N 62.1W. LESLIE IS ABOUT 386 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. LESLIE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 178 NM FROM THE CENTER. SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT BULLETINS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 200 TO 300 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 32N BETWEEN 46W AND 70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO A 26N40W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N41W 15N44W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N40W...TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N41W...TO 22N41W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 37W AND 42W. ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N35W 16N35W 13N36W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 28W AND 33W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. THIS WAVE LIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT IS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W... ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 15N30W 9N48W. THE ITCZ IS INDISTINCT AFTER 9N48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 30W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO THE TEXAS GULF COASTAL WATERS FROM THE UPPER COAST TO THE LOWER COAST. NO FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...TO A GULF OF MEXICO 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N89W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FROM THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N75W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ON TOP OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA TO 21N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 72W...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 80W...AND FROM GUATEMALA TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...8N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N84W IN NICARAGUA TO 11N75W AT THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ONE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 38N27W...TO 28N25W AND 19N24W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W... TO A GULF OF MEXICO 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N89W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2... FOR DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM LESLIE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT