000 AXNT20 KNHC 030616 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2012 CORRECTION IN ORDER TO ADD A FEATURE TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AT 03/0300 UTC IS NEAR 23.4N 61.7W. LESLIE IS ABOUT 378 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. LESLIE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 178 NM FROM THE CENTER. SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE MAY AFFECT PARTS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SWELLS ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AT THIS MOMENT. THESE SWELLS MAY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT BULLETINS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 250 TO 300 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 22N TO 32N BETWEEN 47W AND 70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO A 26N40W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 18N42W AND 15N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N39W 28N40W...TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N41W...TO 22N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 24N TO 32N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W. THE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD 9 KNOTS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N32W 16N34W 13N34W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 28W AND 34W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ. THIS WAVE LIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT IS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W... ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 14N30W 11N40W 9N48W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N48W 8N54W...AND NORTHERN GUYANA NEAR 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 18N TO THE EAST OF 26W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA ALONG NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE...INTO TEXAS...FROM THE UPPER TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST...27N97W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 30N77W...ACROSS FLORIDA FROM 28N TO 29N...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N91W. FROM THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N74W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N78W...ACROSS CUBA ALONG 80W...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 72W...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 81W...FROM EL SALVADOR TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM EL SALVADOR TO 20N IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N73W 8N79N...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 80W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 30N77W... ACROSS FLORIDA FROM 28N TO 29N...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N91W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2... FOR DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM LESLIE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT