000 AXNT20 KNHC 021143 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN SEP 02 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM KIRK IS CENTERED NEAR 43.5N 39.2W AT 02/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 615 NM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND ABOUT 645 NM NW OF THE AZORES MOVING NE AT 28 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 43N-45N BETWEEN 38W-40W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS CENTERED NEAR 20.8N 59.5W AT 02/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 250 NM NNE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING NW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 56W-62W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N31W TO 20N27W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N31W. LOW-LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ELONGATED NE TO SW IN THE VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 23W-39W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE DUE TO SAHARAN DUST WHICH COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC S OF 30N E OF 35W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO 18N23W TO 13N31W TO 07N42W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N42W TO 05N48W TO 06N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 37W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 28N100W THAT EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS E-NE TO 34N81W THAT REMAINS A LARGE INFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN THIS MORNING. PRIMARILY NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE PROVIDING AN OVERALL STABLE AND SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE GULF THAT IS SUPPORTIVE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF WATERS NEAR 29N86W. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED OCCURRING S OF 21N BETWEEN 93W-95W. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE PRIMARILY FOUND ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING AS DEPICTED BY AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AT 02/0316 UTC. THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND REMAIN ALONG 27N/28N WITH LIGHT E TO SE WINDS PERSISTING. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IS ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES S OF 14N W OF 73W...INCLUDING WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N76W TO 13N84W. WITH TROPICAL STORM LESLIE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...LIGHT CYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED IN OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...THAT SHIFT MORE EASTERLY W OF A LINE FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE GRENADINES. TYPICAL OF THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOTED NORTH OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-78W WITH CONFIRMATION BY A 02/0134 UTC ASCAT AND 01/2306 UTC WINDSAT PASS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N65W SOUTHWEST TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N74W. THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND LOW SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 32N64W TO 30N69W TO 27N74W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N79W PROVIDING MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 70W WITH NE TO E WINDS. FARTHER EAST...TROPICAL STORM LESLIE CONTINUES TO TRACK NW STEERED BY A WEAKNESS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 60W-75W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 45W ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N45W. TO THE WEST OF THIS HIGH...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NEAR 31N52W. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 45W-53W. TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N38W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 34W-41W...WITH ADDED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUPPLIED BY A 1016 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N38W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE LOW FROM 24N36W TO 33N37W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN