000 AXNT20 KNHC 011124 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT SEP 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE KIRK IS CENTERED NEAR 35.3N 48.2W AT 01/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 720 NM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND ABOUT 1030 NM W OF THE AZORES MOVING NE AT 20 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 33N-37N BETWEEN 46W-50W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS CENTERED NEAR 17.8N 53.5W AT 01/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 480 NM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING W-NW AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 50W-56W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 55W-58W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N25W TO 21N21W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N25W. LOW-LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION BETWEEN 18W-37W WHICH IS MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MONSOONAL GYRE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 14N25W TO 06N35W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N35W TO 06N48W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 29N93W AND REMAINS A LARGE INFLUENCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN THIS MORNING. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY FAIR. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 21N W OF 93W. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NE OF THE GULF BY A PAIR OF 1022 MB HIGHS...ONE CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 33N74W...AND THE OTHER CENTERED OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA NEAR 33N84W. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE PRIMARILY FOUND ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING AS DEPICTED BY EARLIER ASCAT AND WINDSAT PASSES AT 01/0338 UTC AND 31/2328 UTC RESPECTIVELY. THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND REMAIN ALONG 28N/29N WITH LIGHT E TO SE WINDS PERSISTING. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IS ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES W OF A LINE FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 74W. WITH TROPICAL STORM LESLIE LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MOSTLY NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL SHIFTING MORE EASTERLY W OF 70W. TYPICAL OF THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOTED NORTH OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-77W WITH CONFIRMATION BY A 01/0154 UTC ASCAT PASS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N66W SOUTHWEST TO A BASE NEAR 24N77W. THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N62W TO 29N71W AND A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 28N66W TO 25N72W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N74W PROVIDING MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 70W WITH NE TO E WINDS. FARTHER EAST...HURRICANE KIRK CONTINUES TO TRACK NE...NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WHILE TROPICAL STORM LESLIE CONTINUES TO TRACK W-NW S OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 40W ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N40W. FAIR CONDITIONS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING... HOWEVER A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N34W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 26N-33N BETWEEN 30W-41W...WITH ADDED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUPPLIED BY A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N-35N ALONG 32W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN