000 AXNT20 KNHC 261804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC AT 26/1800 UTC IS NEAR 23.9N 81.5W. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA...OR ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NE OF HAVANA CUBA. ISAAC IS MOVING WNW AT 16 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY...MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA TO NW CUBA FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 80W-82W. BANDS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FURTHER N FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 76W-83W...AND FURTHER S FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 77W-80W. A 1010 MB LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS CENTERED NEAR 17N35W MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. THE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 24N31W TO THE LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD SCALE MONSOON GYRE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITHIN A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC. THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND A THICK LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST SURROUNDING THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 32W-40W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA...ENTERING THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC OVER THE COAST OF MAURITANIA AT 20N16W CONTINUING WSW TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 16N22W TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE 1010 MB LOW AT 17N35W TO 11N40W TO 8N46W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N46W TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AT 9N61W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 16W-23W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 57W-60W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... T.S. ISAAC IS CENTERED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEE ABOVE. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR NUMEROUS LOCATIONS. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED SKIES AND SHOWERS EXTEND OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 89W AND S OF 29N TO INCLUDE CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND W CUBA. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 22N-24 N BETWEEN 90W-92W. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SOUTHERN BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF CUBA FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 77W-80W. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA. INTERESTS OVER W CUBA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC. MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AS THE STORM CONTINUES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SW CARIBBEAN IS THE ONLY AREA STILL UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. ELSEWHERE... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 71W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A NORTHERN BAND OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING WATERS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 76W-83W. MUCH OF THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN AS THE STORM CONTINUES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N50W. ANOTHER 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N29W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 22N63W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF THE CENTER FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 57W-62W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N45W PRODUCING SHEAR OVER THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED AT 17N35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA