000 AXNT20 KNHC 200602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON AT 20/0600 UTC IS NEAR 37.3N 25.2W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 20 MILES/30 KM TO THE NORTH OF SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE AZORES...AND ABOUT 40 MILES/65 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES. GORDON IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 17 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 37N TO 38N BETWEEN 24W AND 25W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 37N TO 42N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N39W TO 18N41W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N41W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 17 TO 22 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 37W AND 41W AND FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 30W AND 47W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N20W TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N21W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 22W AND 26W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 21N BETWEEN 19W AND 30W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N50W 14N51W 11N50W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 51W AND 52W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N80W 16N81W 12N82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 76W AND 83W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH STARTS NEAR 13N21W TO 12N24W 14N32W 15N41W 11N50W AND 7N57W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 27W AND 33W...FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 37W AND 38W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 37W AND 39W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH LOUISIANA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...REACHING 26N93W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. A SQUALL LINE IS ALONG 29N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO 27N87W IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO 25N94W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 94W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SECTION... INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS WIND FLOW IS CONNECTED TO THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL CYCLONE...20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ABOUT 60 NM TO THE EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 64W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N...REACHING CENTRAL VENEZUELA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W TO 7N76W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...BEYOND 8N82W IN PANAMA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 36N44W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 30N44W AND 29N46W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 29N46W TO 29N56W...TO A 24N56W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 19N64W JUST OUTSIDE THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ANOTHER BRANCH OF A TROUGH GOES FROM THE 24N56W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 23N68W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 26N32W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N36W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N61W...TO JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N41W THAT IS FORECAST TO BE A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR 16N49W IN 24 HOURS AND TO BE NEAR 16N57W IN 48 HOURS. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST FOR 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT