000 AXNT20 KNHC 191754 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE GORDON IS CENTERED NEAR 35.8N 28.7W AT 19/1800 OR ABOUT 190 NM SW OF SAO MIGUEL ISLAND IN THE AZORES MOVING ENE AT 18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 35N-38N BETWEEN 25W-31W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N36W TO 20N34W MOVING W AT 20 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS ANALYZED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N36W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 36W-39W TO THE NW OF THE LOW AND FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 36W-41W TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N47W TO 18N46W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. EMBEDDED LARGELY WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH GYRE...A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N47W AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N-15N BETWEEN 47W-51W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N76W TO 22N78W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS BROADENED OVER A LARGER AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS AS THE WAVE HAS TRACKED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THE SAME WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTED BETWEEN 70W-83W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 75W-78W...AND FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 80W-85W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 12N21W TO 16N30W TO 14N36W TO 11N41W TO 11N47W TO 08N54W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N54W TO 07N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-10N BETWEEN 15W-19W...FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 18W-23W...FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 32W-39W...FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 43W-47W...AND FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 57W-63W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SEVERAL MID- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH AND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 26N. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA TO 31N86W TO 30N94W ALONG MUCH OF THE GULF COAST GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W TO THE NW GULF NEAR 28N96W. A WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD THEN EXTENDS SOUTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF WITH AMPLE RETURN FLOW...MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY FOCUSED ALONG MAXIMUM LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM 20N96W TO 24N98W. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 95W-98W...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 91W-98W. OTHERWISE... THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF S OF 28N E OF 90W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE AXIS ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ALONG 25N. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 87W...HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY ALOFT AND THIS IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY FAIR SKIES NW OF A LINE FROM 16N85W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W HOWEVER IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 70W-85W ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION LIES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N70W. FARTHER EAST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DRY AIRMASS ALOFT THAT CONTINUES TO ADVECT FROM THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 64W KEEPING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS N OF 13N E OF 67W THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 13N E OF 65W IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ WHICH LOCATES ALONG 08N. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THAT CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC N OF 30N BETWEEN 60W-77W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY STRETCHES TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30N75W TO 26N80W NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N57W THAT EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS W-SW TO 23N66W WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...GUARDED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N32W...AND A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N59W. THE FAIR WEATHER PRODUCED BY THESE SURFACE FEATURES IS FURTHER ENHANCED ALOFT BY THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER AND ASSOCIATED DUST ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 65W AS NOTED ON GOES-R PROVING GROUND IMAGERY. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SAHARAN DUST IS FOUND OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLC N OF 16N E OF 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN