000 AXNT20 KNHC 161143 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT INTENSIFIED ENOUGH FROM 16/0300 UTC TO 16/0900 UTC AND IT HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM GORDON AT 16/0900 UTC. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON AT 16/0900 UTC IS NEAR 32.2N 54.8W. GORDON IS MOVING NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD 12 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 32N TO 34N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 25N TO 37N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 19W AND 31W. ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH THAN TO THE WAVE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 44W AND 60W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND NEAR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS... TO 18N64W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 14N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 91W...FROM 23N INTO WESTERN GUATEMALA. THIS WAVE IS REMNANT OF T.D. SEVEN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF GUATEMALA TO THE NORTH OF 12N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND BELIZE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 87W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W AND 97W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W TO 11N24W 10N32W 8N44W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N44W TO 6N54W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W...AND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N91W...TO A 23N97W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...BEYOND 20N97W AT THE MEXICO COAST. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TOWARD 26N90W AND THEN BEYOND 30N83W IN NORTHERN FLORIDA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 26N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 23N98W. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N63W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N64W...AND THEN FROM PUERTO RICO TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 66W TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND 77W NEAR EASTERN JAMAICA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER MOVED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS NEAR 17N77W AROUND 15/2115 UTC...WESTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD...AND THEN SOUTHWARD...DISSIPATING AND LOSING ITS IDENTITY NEAR 15N78W ABOUT 16/0515 UTC. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 12.5N82W IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. IT IS ALONG 20N64W 14N66W...BEYOND 8N68W IN WESTERN VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN CLUSTERS FROM 7N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO 11N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND 82W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N47W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N17W TO 26N22W TO 18N35W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N20W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N45W...TO 26N60W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 23N98W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...NFDHSFAT1...FOR DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM GORDON. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT