000 AXNT20 KNHC 160642 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2012 CORRECTION FOR THE TIME FOR T.D. EIGHT TO 16/0300 UTC... THE MONSOON TROUGH/THE ITCZ...AND OTHER FEATURES TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT AT 16/0300 UTC IS NEAR 31.3N 55.5W. T.D. EIGHT IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 25N TO 36N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N. ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH THAN TO THE WAVE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N50W 15N47W 10N43W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 38W AND 55W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N61W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO 18N64W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 14N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N63W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N63W...AND THEN FROM PUERTO RICO TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W/90W...FROM 23N JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO WESTERN HONDURAS. THIS WAVE IS REMNANT OF T.D. SEVEN. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EARLIER NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT COVERED THE COASTAL AREAS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM EASTERN EL SALVADOR TO WESTERN HONDURAS AND SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W INCLUDING IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W TO 11N25W TO 9N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N43W TO 7N49W...TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL FRENCH GUIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL SURINAME NEAR 4N55W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 16W AND 17W AND FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N91W...TO A 23N95W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...BEYOND 20N96W AT THE MEXICO COAST. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TOWARD 26N90W AND THEN BEYOND 30N83W IN NORTHERN FLORIDA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N74W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN TOWARD THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N97W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N63W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N63W...AND THEN FROM PUERTO RICO TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER MOVED FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS NEAR 17N77W AROUND 15/2115 UTC...WESTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD...AND THEN SOUTHWARD...DISSIPATING AND LOSING ITS IDENTITY NEAR 15N78W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. IT IS ALONG 20N62W 14N65W...BEYOND 8N67W IN WEST CENTRAL VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 67W...MOVING WESTWARD. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N75W IN COLOMBIA...NORTHWESTWARD SPANNING PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA AND SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N47W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N17W TO 26N23W TO 18N35W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 37N13W TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N23W...TO 28N32W 26N53W...TO A 1018 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N74W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN TOWARD THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N97W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT...AND EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 150 NM OF THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. THE 12 HOUR FORECAST CALLS FOR CONDITIONS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM EIGHT TO HAVE MOVED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT