000 AXNT20 KNHC 160604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT AT 16/0000 UTC IS NEAR 31.3N 55.5W. T.D. EIGHT IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/ WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 25N TO 36N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N. ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE MORE RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH THAN TO THE WAVE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N50W 15N47W 10N43W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 38W AND 55W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N61W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO 18N64W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 14N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N63W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N63W... AND THEN TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN HISPANIOLA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W/90W...FROM 23N JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO WESTERN HONDURAS. THIS WAVE IS REMNANT OF T.D. SEVEN. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EARLIER NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT COVERED THE COASTAL AREAS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM EASTERN EL SALVADOR TO WESTERN HONDURAS AND SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W INCLUDING IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 14N16W...TO 11N30W 8N37W AND 6N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N40W TO 3N44W AND 2N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 29W AND 60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 22N58W 15N59W...BEYOND 7N59W IN NORTHERN GUYANA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST/IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N87W...TO A 25N89W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 21N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ON TOP OF MEXICO IS PUSHING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO TEXAS TO THE SOUTH OF 32N ALONG 101W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF 32N101W 25N96W 19N93W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 33N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N62W...20N62W... CROSSING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...TO A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 19N76W BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HAITI. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS...AND IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN HAITI...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N61W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 18N64W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 14N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. DISSIPATING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N63W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N63W...AND THEN TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 67W...MOVING WESTWARD. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N75W IN COLOMBIA...NORTHWESTWARD SPANNING PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA AND SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 22N57W 16N58W...BEYOND 7N59W IN NORTHERN GUYANA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE 29N53W 20N58W SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N25W TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N44W...TO BERMUDA...SOUTHWESTWARD PASSING ON TOP OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO 26N80W NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT...AND EXCEPT AS NOTED IN WARNINGS...WITHIN 150 NM OF THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT. THE 12 HOUR FORECAST CALLS FOR CONDITIONS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM EIGHT TO HAVE MOVED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT