000 AXNT20 KNHC 110547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 13.9N 55.2W AT 11/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 256 NM E OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 340 NM E OF MARTINIQUE MOVING W AT 21 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 53W-56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 51W-59W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N23W THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 18N25W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 14N25W MOVING WNW AT 15-20 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A CUT OFF AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A BURST OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW OVER THE W QUADRANT. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N89W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N90W TO N GUATEMALA MOVING WNW 20-25 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N E OF 96W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH BEGINS S OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 12N27W EXTENDING ALONG 10N31W TO 10N38W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 10N44W TO 12N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 9N35W TO 13N42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT REMAINS INLAND STRETCHING THROUGH NW ALABAMA TO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE MOVED TO WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER W CUBA EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N E OF 84W TO INLAND OVER S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MEXICO AND THE SW GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COAST LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE OVER MEXICO LATE SUN OR MON. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER W CUBA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E EXTENDS ACROSS HAITI TO COLOMBIA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-21N BETWEEN 76W-84W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. T.D. SEVEN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN SAT EVENING THEN DISSIPATING TO A TROPICAL WAVE INTO CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 26N73W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS S OVER HAITI INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND NE TO OVER BERMUDA AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 31N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 75W-80W AND S OF 27N W OF 80W TO OVER S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N68W TO 23N73W. A BROAD UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR 27N51W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 56W-65W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N31W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 32N43W ACROSS BERMUDA THEN WSW ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NE THROUGH SAT. T.D. SEVEN IS FORECAST TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BEFORE MOVING INTO THE CARIBBEAN SAT EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW