000 AXNT20 KNHC 102352 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 13.8N 52.8W AT 11/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM E OF BARBADOS ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM E OF MARTINIQUE MOVING W AT 21 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 50W-58W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ERN ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM 21N20W TO 13N22W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15 KT. A 1007 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N21W. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 22W-28W. LAST VISIBLE PICTURES OF THE DAY SHOWED A REMARKABLE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ON THE CLOUD PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT REMAINS SUPPRESSED AS INFRA-RED IMAGERY INDICATES NO DEEP COLD CLOUD TOPS IN THE CONVECTION AREA. TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM 24N87W TO 16N88W MOVING NW AT 10-15 KT. THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE REMAINS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH BEGINS S OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW IN THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N22W TO 9N35W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 7N41W TO 8N46W. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 100-150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SSW ACROSS THE ERN CONUS TO THE NW GULF BASIN. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRODUCING INLAND CONVECTION THAT IS ENTERING THE N-CENTRAL AND NE GULF...DEPICTED ON DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY N OF 28N BETWEEN 84W-92W. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT ESE ACROSS THE SE CONUS...THE ACTIVITY OVER THE N-CENTRAL AND NE GULF WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED OVER WRN CUBA MOVING N INTO THE ERN GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N E OF 88W. THE ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LARGE CYCLONIC WIND FIELD FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO COMBINED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS SRN MEXICO IS STILL PRODUCING RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOTED ON LAST SATELLITE VISIBLE PICTURES OF THE DAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER WRN CUBA AND INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 76W-84W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO NRN COLOMBIA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MENTIONED AREA. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TRAJECTORY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FARTHER EAST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOST DRY AIR IS FOUND E OF 76W ALOFT AND THIS ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED IN WRN CUBA. THE BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND THIS FEATURE IS ADVECTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WRN ATLC S OF 30N W OF 72W. A SURFACE TROUGH JUST EAST OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO PROVIDING FOR SIMILAR ACTIVITY WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS FROM 26N67W TO 22N71W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N50W PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 56W-61W. OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC AND REMAINS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N32W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA