000 AXNT20 KNHC 101759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO AT 10/1500 UTC IS NEAR 18.0N 99.2W. THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO ARE INLAND MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE REMNANTS ERNESTO MAY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...NEAR 17N104W...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WAS IN MEXICO AND COASTAL WATERS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W...AND FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W AT 10/0715 UTC. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND THE PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED IN THOSE AREAS. COLD CLOUD TOPS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REMAINS FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 99W AND 100W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN...ON THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN AT 10/1500 UTC IS NEAR 13.7N 49.5W. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 47W AND 57W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 21W AND 23W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 24N BETWEEN 20W AND 27W. THIS FEATURE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 17 KNOTS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM 25N INTO COASTAL HONDURAS MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF AND AWAY FROM THE AREA OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO-TO WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASSOCIATE ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT JUST ACCOMPANIES ONLY THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W...THROUGH THE 20W/21W TROPICAL WAVE TO 14N21W 9N30W AND 8N44W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N44W TO COASTAL FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 17W AND 30W...AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE MOVING FROM THE COASTAL WATERS INLAND IN GUYANA AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA BETWEEN 58W AND 62W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W...MOVING AROUND THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 86W. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO-TO WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE REST OF THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW RESULTS FROM THE 32N88W TO 28N88W TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N88W TO 28N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 82W AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO. FROM FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA NEAR 21N83W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...THROUGH THE 21N83W CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 10N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN 74W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 70W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 75W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 25N86W TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 27N. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. THIS WIND FLOW RESULTS FROM NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 30N50W 24N52W 18N55W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W... TO 9N79W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 10N84W IN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 75W ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST AND 84W IN NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N50W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N52W 18N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W...AND FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N38W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N47W...TO 31N69W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N79W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEAS RELATED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT