000 AXNT20 KNHC 101200 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 18.0N 97.8W AT 10/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 85 NM NW OF OAXACA MEXICO AND ABOUT 115 NM SW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MOVING W AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN 92W-104W. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION HOWEVER IS SW OF A LINE FROM 22N98W TO 19N92W ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS AND INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/ WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS CENTERED NEAR 13.6N 47.2W AT 10/0900 UTC OR ABOUT 810 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MOVING W AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 46W-48W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N19W TO 20N18W MOVING WNW AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA IN THE PAST 6 HOURS AND EXHIBITS VERY DISTINCT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH A 1004 MB LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N19W. GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATES THAT IF THE LOW HOLDS TOGETHER WITH SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION...IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 18W-21W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N69W TO 26N64W MOVING NW AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS THE REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS FLORENCE WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 64W-67W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N85W TO 23N81W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE LIES BENEATH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N81W. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROVIDING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CONVECTION REMAINS VERY LIMITED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-22N BETWEEN 81W-83W AND IS LIKELY MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ITSELF. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N21W TO 12N27W TO 14N39W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 10N49W TO 07N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 19W-24W...AND FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 48W-53W...AND FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 56W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INFLUENCING MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN LOCATED NORTH OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 23N99W AND IS PROVIDING NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...WITH ERNESTO WEAKENING INLAND...MOSTLY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE NOTED SOUTH OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 27N. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RESULT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AND ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST N OF 27N BETWEEN 85W-92W...AND OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 83W-85W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG 28N WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS FORECAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N81W AND INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 75W-85W. FARTHER EAST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOST DRY AIR IS FOUND E OF 70W ALOFT AND THIS ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HOWEVER ARE NOTED OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 68W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N81W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC TO 30N78W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AND AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 27N BETWEEN 69W-81W. A TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THIS AREA IS ALSO PROVIDING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 60W-67W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALL LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N60W TO 28N79W THEN WESTWARD ALONG 28N INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. FARTHER EAST...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC AND REMAINS ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N47W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN