000 AXNT20 KNHC 081205 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED AUG 08 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 18.8N 89.8W AT 08/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 78 NM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MOVING W AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 83W-91W. OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 11N-22N BETWEEN 82W-94W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N35W TO 18N31W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N35W AND AN EARLIER 08/0006 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICTED THE CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS ALSO OBSERVED BETWEEN 30W-37W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 09N-16N BETWEEN 33W-39W. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N54W TO 24N51W MOVING W-NW AT 15-20 KT. THE REMNANT LOW OF FLORENCE IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AS A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 52W-56W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N70W TO 19N66W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN LOW-LEVEL GLOBAL MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS A MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 63W-70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 63W-70W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N70W WHICH IS PROVIDING MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MAXIMUM DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO 16N25W TO 12N35W TO 09N40W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 09N40W TO 07N49W TO 09N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 47W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN THIS MORNING WHICH IS LOCATED NORTH OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 23N89W. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESENCE OF ERNESTO IS PROVIDING MOSTLY CYCLONIC WINDS S OF 25N BETWEEN 83W-97W. N OF 25N...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 28N EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE NW GULF NEAR 28N94W THEN SW TO 23N99W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS WITH AXIS FROM 38N82W TO 30N91W. MUCH OF THIS CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE SW GULF AND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG 28N OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD. WHILE THE CORE CONVECTION OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 86W-91W...OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA PACIFIC COAST W OF 82W AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...BELIZE...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PORTION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUTFLOW FROM ERNESTO TRAILS TO THE EAST IN A TRAJECTORY ALONG 20N83W TO 16N74W TO 20N69W AND INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N70W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 14N BETWEEN 70W-82W. FARTHER EAST...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS BETWEEN 62W-71W. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY ENHANCED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 32N71W AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N65W TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N81W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS N OF 30N W OF A LINE FROM 32N76W TO 30N79W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 36N53W THAT EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS SW TO 26N63W TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N70W. THIS OVERALL TROUGHING IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 30N64W TO 23N71W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 61W-66W...AND FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 65W-72W. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE LARGELY INFLUENCES THE AREA N OF 19N W OF 60W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND REMNANTS OF FLORENCE S OF 24N ALONG 53W. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A STATIONARY 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N46W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN