000 AXNT20 KNHC 080730 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION..CORRECTION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED AUG 08 2012 CORRECTION TO GIVE ERNESTO HURRICANE TITLE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 18.8N 88.3W AT 08/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 15 NM N OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 140 NM ESE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MOVING W AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 85W-90W. OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS OF SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N-23N BETWEEN 82W-94W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N33W TO 17N32W MOVING W AT 15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N33W AND AN EARLIER 08/0006 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICTED THE CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS ALSO OBSERVED BETWEEN 25W-35W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N32W TO 09N37W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N52W TO 24N49W MOVING W-NW AT 15-20 KT. THE REMNANT LOW OF FLORENCE IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AS A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 51W-53W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N67W TO 17N64W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN LOW-LEVEL GLOBAL MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS A MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 61W-69W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 60W-68W. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N70W WHICH IS PROVIDING MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 20N16W TO 12N33W TO 09N38W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDS FROM 09N38W TO 07N46W TO 07N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 44W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THIS GULF BASIN THIS EVENING WHICH IS LOCATED NORTH OF HURRICANE ERNESTO AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 29N91W TO 19N83W OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRESENCE OF ERNESTO IS PROVIDING MOSTLY CYCLONIC WINDS S OF 24N BETWEEN 80W-95W. N OF 24N...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 28N EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE NW GULF NEAR 28N95W THEN S-SW TO 23N96W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER THE NE GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS FROM 38N83W TO 32N91W. MUCH OF THIS CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE SW GULF AND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG 28N OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... ERNESTO HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD. WHILE THE CORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 85W-90W...OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 82W AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...GUATEMALA... BELIZE...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PORTION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OUTFLOW FROM ERNESTO TRAILS TO THE EAST IN A TRAJECTORY ALONG 21N83W TO 17N75W TO 20N69W AND INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N70W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF 14N BETWEEN 69W-80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS N OF 17N. FARTHER EAST...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS E OF 68W. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY ENHANCED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 32N73W AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N80W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS N OF 30N W OF 78W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 36N54W THAT EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS S-SW TO 30N60W TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N70W. THIS OVERALL TROUGHING IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 31N60W TO 25N64W AND ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH FARTHER SW FROM 26N71W TO 21N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 24N28N BETWEEN 60W-64W...AND FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 65W-76W. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE LARGELY INFLUENCES THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 60W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND REMNANTS OF FLORENCE S OF 24N ALONG 52W. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N43W AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN