000
AXNT20 KNHC 061757
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO AT 06/1800 UTC IS NEAR 
16.2N 81.1W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 140 NM TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS 
BORDER...AND ABOUT 316 NM TO THE EAST OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS .  
ERNESTO IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS 
ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC 
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS 
FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO 
LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE 
NORTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 76W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR 
THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 06/1200 UTC FOR KINGSTON JAMAICA WAS 
0.69 INCHES.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLORENCE HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FLORENCE AT 06/1500 UTC. THE CENTER
OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FLORENCE AT 06/1500 UTC IS NEAR
16.4N 40.2W. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FLORENCE IS MOVING WESTWARD
10 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 
PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/
WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N18W 15N19W TO
A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N19W...IN
THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE DAKAR SENEGAL RAWINSONDE DATA SHOW
THAT A WAVE PASSED THAT STATION ROUGHLY DURING THE LAST
36 HOURS OR SO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 16W AND 21W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION THAT IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 24W AND 27W IS 
RELATED TO AN AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS AT LEAST
IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...OR AT A HIGHER LEVEL.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W...TO THE SOUTH 
OF 20N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA AND 
POSSIBLY TRINIDAD...FROM 9N TO 16N 57W AND 63W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W
TO THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N19W...TO
12N29W 9N40W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N40W TO 9N48W AND 10N57W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 5N TO 8N 
BETWEEN 19W AND 29W...FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 36W...
AND FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
23N94W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ENTIRE 
AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERNMOST CORNER...WHICH HAS 
WESTERLY WIND FLOW ABOUT 500 NM TO THE NORTH OF T.S. ERNESTO. 
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF
THE COAST OF ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...AND LOUISIANA TO THE WEST
OF 87W...FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W OFF THE COAST OF 
FLORIDA...AND TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 84W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N85W TO A 1016 MB 
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N85W...NEAR THE BORDERS
OF FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND ALABAMA...TO 29N90W IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO TEXAS NEAR 30N96W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE 
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS AT 48 HOURS
TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W. PLEASE FOLLOW THE PATH
OF T.S. ERNESTO THAT IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AT THE 
MOMENT. THE FORECAST FOR 09/1200 UTC GIVES THE POSSIBILITY
OF T.S. ERNESTO REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA. PLEASE REFERENCE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE 
DETAILS ABOUT THIS SYSTEM. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE 
PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 06/1200 UTC FOR KINGSTON JAMAICA WAS
0.69 INCHES.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W...TO THE SOUTH 
OF 20N...AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 
ISLANDS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA AND 
POSSIBLY TRINIDAD...FROM 9N TO 16N 57W AND 63W. THE 24-HOUR 
RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 06/1200 UTC FOR
TRINIDAD WAS 0.37 INCHES.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N71W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER
REACHES THE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE NORTH
OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS 
HISPANIOLA...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN
67W AND 72W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE 
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO BE RELATED TO T.S. ERNESTO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLORENCE HAS WEAKENED AND IT HAS BECOME
A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. PLEASE REFERENCE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THIS SYSTEM.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N71W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY TO 
WESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER REACHES THE 
AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 
60W AND 70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...AND
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION 
IS TO THE NORTH OF CUBA BETWEEN 78W AND THE EASTERN U.S.A. 
COAST...BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND THE U.S.A.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 
26N55W TO 21N60W TO 18N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N57W 
27N60W 25N61W 21N62W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 
20N BETWEEN 50W AND 67W.

A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N37W. SURFACE 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 26N
TO THE EAST OF 51W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEAS RELATED
TO POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FLORENCE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT