000 AXNT20 KNHC 060000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 79.6W AT 06/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER MOVING W AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF JAMAICA FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 75W-79W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 73W-80W. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/ WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE IS CENTERED NEAR 16.3N 36.7W AT 05/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 845 MI...1355 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MOVING W AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE CENTER FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 38W-39W. A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN 35W-42W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 14N53W TO 7N58W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 55W-60W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA AT 10N14W TO 8N20W 8N30W. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES W OF FLORENCE FROM 12N41W TO 11N47W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N47W TO 12N55W TO THE COAST OF E VENEZUELA AT 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER W AFRICA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 12W-17W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 17W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 31N86W 27N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 82W-88W. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N91W MOVING W. THIS LOW IS ENHANCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE NW GULF...S TEXAS ...AND LOUISIANA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE N GULF STATES. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER W CUBA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DUE TO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF ERNESTO. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CUBA E OF 82W. FURTHER S... A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA TO PANAMA TO COSTA RICA ALONG 9N74W 9N80W 10N85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. RESIDUAL ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... SW FLOW IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N91W. THIS FLOW IS ALSO ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER CUBA AND THE N YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT ERNESTO TO BE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS IN 24 HOURS WITH CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 38N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 30N52W 24N56W. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N37W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SAHARAN DUST COVERING MOST OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN E OF 45W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N71W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 53W-66W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA