000 AXNT20 KNHC 011819 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED AUG 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N45W 13N47W... TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N47W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 16N BETWEEN 43W AND 52W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 17 KT. ANYONE WHO LIVES IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND/OR WHO HAS INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N29W 13N30W 9N30W. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP REALLY WELL IN LONG-TERM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE IT LEFT FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA. THE WAVE IS EVIDENT IN THE TPW IMAGERY ALSO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 27W AND 33W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N74W IN THE BAHAMAS... THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 17N75W AND 12N75W. THIS WAVE ALSO SHOWS UP WELL IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE TPW DATA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 15N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W TO 12N25W 8N32W 10N41W...TO THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N47W. THE ITCZ IS NOT DISTINGUISHABLE AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 18W AND FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 26W AND 36W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 12N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N80W TO 29N79W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N80W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N78W...TO THE 24N80W CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 20N84W...TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOME OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH IS COMBINING WITH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 26N82W 22N88W. A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 25N FROM THE BAHAMAS TO 24N85W... TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE AREA OF A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS. THE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 93W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA IS COVERED WITH UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A 27N78W 24N80W 20N84W GULF OF HONDURAS TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN SOUTHERN BELIZE/THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N74W IN THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 17N75W AND 12N75W. THIS WAVE ALSO SHOWS UP WELL IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE TPW DATA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 15N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. ONE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 16N66W 11N68W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 17N73W 14N75W...INTO COASTAL COLOMBIA AND BEYOND 8N77W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF THE TWO TROUGHS AND IT IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TROUGHS AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N70W JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A RIDGE COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FOR THE 48 HOUR FORECAST FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N45W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 33N42W TO THE CENTER NEAR 27N45W TO 16N50W CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 33N BETWEEN 34W AND 56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 43W AND 60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 30N66W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 27N TO 33N BETWEEN 60W AND 71W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE 30N66W CYCLONIC CENTER...BETWEEN THE CENTER AND 20N...AND BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 27N45W CENTER AND THE TROUGH THAT IS AROUND THE 24N80W FLORIDA STRAITS CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NEAR THE 30N66W CENTER FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...FROM HISPANIOLA TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 71W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N49W 30N50W 25N54W. A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N36W. A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N60W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 32N49W 25N54W TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF 20N. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N47W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT