000 AXNT20 KNHC 010547 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED AUG 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 15N42W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 10N43W WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOCATED ABOUT 955 NM MILES E-SE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 42W-47W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N22W TO A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 12N25W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SW NEAR 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE IS IN DRIER AIR DUE TO SAHARAN DUST THAT COVERS THE E ATLC. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 22N70W INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA ALONG 17N72W TO 13N72W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE BETWEEN 67W-73W. TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA HAS MOVED INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 21N16W EXTENDING ALONG 14N20W THROUGH THE 1014 MB LOW DESCRIBED ABOVE CONTINUING ALONG 10N31W TO 11N37W. THE ITCZ STARTS W OF THE 1012 MB LOW NEAR 10N45W 9N55W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM ON EITHER SIDE THE ITCZ BETWEEN 48W-58W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 24W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF N OF LINE FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA ALONG 22N90W TO TAMPICO MEXICO AND ANCHORED OVER NE TEXAS. AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE FAR S GULF CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN JUST S OF CUBA EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN TO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN NW TO TUXPAN MEXICO GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SE GULF WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM FLORIDA BAY NEAR 25N81W TO 23N87W INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF S MEXICO S OF 20N E OF 93W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE GEORGIA ACROSS NE FLORIDA ENTERING THE GULF BETWEEN TAMPA AND CEDAR KEY TO 26N87W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA/STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 24N87W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE SW COAST OF CUBA NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH W ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N61W AND EXTENDING AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 16N69W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W PROVING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 73W. THE ACTIVITY OVER NE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TO HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT AND WED THEN ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI TO W OF THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN LATE SAT AND SUN...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO NE FLORIDA GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 32N W OF 75W. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 28N76W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA S OF 28N BETWEEN 55W-75W AND ANCHORED JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N61W AND ALSO EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N45W AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N50W TO 26N53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 42W-47W AND FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 53W-61W. OTHERWISE A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC WITH A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 32N63W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AGAIN SHOWS YET ANOTHER SURGE OF SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE E ATLC FROM 16N-30N E OF 30W. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE W ATLC THROUGH SUN. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS THROUGH THU NIGHT. 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