000 AXNT20 KNHC 300600 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUL 30 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 21N56W TO 11N58W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 16N59W TO OVER THE ISLANDS NEAR DOMINICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 53W-60W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 18N77W TO 10N76W MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW AMPLITUDE WEAK SURGE OF MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N16W EXTENDING ALONG 12N21W 11N29W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 10N33W TO 7N42W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 6N48W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N55W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 22W-25W AND FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 32W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF N OF 25N AND IS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH ONE CENTERED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH W TO A SECOND UPPER LOW ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN 91W-93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 86W-93W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 26N87W TO S TEXAS NEAR THE BORDER OF MEXICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE S GULF TUE THROUGH THU AND W OF THE AREA FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 73W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N W OF 76W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...CUBA...HONDURAS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE BEING DRAWN NW DUE TO THE UPPER FLOW AND COVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SW OF A LINE FROM 15N83W TO OVER PANAMA NEAR 9N79W. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IS DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE ISLANDS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE W AND MOVE THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE THEN W OF THE AREA WED. TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE TUE AND WED THEN THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC DRAPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS N OF 31N W OF 75W TO INLAND OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. TO THE E IS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE N OF 28N. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC NEAR 32N30W THROUGH A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS CENTERED NEAR 27N41W...25N65W...TO THE UPPER LOWS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 42W-49W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N55W THROUGH A 1020 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC NEAR 29N71W CONTINUING W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIFT N TO 28N MON AND ALONG 29N TUE THEN SHIFT BACK S AGAIN ON WED AND THU. THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW