000 AXNT20 KNHC 291120 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N50W 17N51W 10N52W. THE WAVE SHOWS UP REALLY WELL IN THE CURRENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT HAS BEEN EASY TO FOLLOW IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. ISOLATED MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 54W AND 60W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W FROM 11N IN VENEZUELA TO 17N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 72W. SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB SHOW THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 11N25W TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 9N30W. THE MONSOON TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 9N30W TO 12N46W AND 10N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W AND FROM 10N TO 11N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 22W AND FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 30N108W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN IN MEXICO DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 105W AND 112W. MUCH OF IT HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N96W IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND TEXAS FROM 19N TO 29N BETWEEN 88W AND 100W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 90W AND LAND. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PUSHED SOUTHEASTWARD...REACHING THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...AND THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS/ COASTAL WATERS. EARLIER AREAS OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAVE DISSIPATED...LEAVING DEBRIS CLOUDS/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN AS MUCH AS 200 NM FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO FLORIDA AND TEXAS. A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N88W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...MOVING AROUND THE HIGH CENTER. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE 24N63W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N70W TO A 24N80W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 24N63W CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 24N80W CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 29N BETWEEN 71W AND 86W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IS TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 79W AND 87W AND FROM 32N TO 33N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W AND TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 54W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W AND FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 67W AND 77W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 16N83W 16N75W 13N71W. A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA 24 HOURS AGO. IT IS NOT EASY TO SEE A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW STILL REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W FROM 11N IN VENEZUELA TO 17N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 72W. SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA FROM 600 MB TO 800 MB SHOW THE WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 7N81W IN PANAMA...AND BEYOND 8N84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS NORTHERN COLOMBIA WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 8N75W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 77W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3 FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 82W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 29N42W TO 26N44W AND 25N50W. A SEPARATE SHEAR AXIS CONNECTS THIS TROUGH TO 25N58W...AND EVENTUALLY TO A 24N63W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE 24N63W CENTER TO 25N70W TO A 24N80W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 24N63W CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 24N80W ANDROS ISLAND CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 29N BETWEEN 71W AND 86W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IS TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 79W AND 87W AND FROM 32N TO 33N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W AND TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 54W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W AND FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 67W AND 77W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N24W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N28W AND 20N32W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N52W TO 29N60W 26N71W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO THE GULF OF MEXICO 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N88W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ACCOMPANY NOW AND THAT WILL ACCOMPANY IN THE FUTURE THE 20N50W 17N51W 10N52W TROPICAL WAVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT