000 AXNT20 KNHC 281141 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUL 28 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W FROM 10N TO 20N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W. A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOWS UP IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A CLEARING IS IN THE WIDESPREAD SAHARAN AIR LAYER IN MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 27/1148 UTC SHOWED SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND THE WAVE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W FROM 9N TO 20N. THIS WAVE IS ON TOP OF BARBADOS...AND ABOUT 85 NM TO THE EAST OF THE REST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 56W AND 61W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W...IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 94W/95W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N...AND THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER AND ALREADY DISSIPATED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... AND POSSIBLE LINGERING RAINSHOWERS...REMAIN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND LAND AREAS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N26W 12N33W 12N42W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 10N45W AND IT GOES TO 7N48W AND 6N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 15W AND 34W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 48W AND 49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N102W... JUST TO THE EAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS TEXAS...MEXICO...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 96W AND 102W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES FROM COASTAL ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA/THROUGH THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...TO A WEAKENING CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG 94W/95W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N...AND THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER AND ALREADY DISSIPATED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...AND POSSIBLE LINGERING RAINSHOWERS... REMAIN IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND LAND AREAS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 26N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N86W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N76W...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA TO 27N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM TO THE NORTH OF JAMAICA BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 82W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE CLOUDS THAT ARE MOVING EASTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 18N72W...OFF THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA...TO 15N74W TO 11N76W NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 80W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W FROM 9N TO 20N. THIS WAVE IS ON TOP OF BARBADOS...AND ABOUT 85 NM TO THE EAST OF THE REST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 56W AND 61W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W...IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH 8N81W IN PANAMA...AND BEYOND 8N85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA COAST AND 80W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN EARLIER NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THIS AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS/TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 28N50W...TO A 23N59W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 23N59W TO 16N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N67W 29N67W 26N69W. THIS TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT OF SIX HOURS AGO. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N55W TO 22N59W. THIS TROUGH USED TO BE PART OF THE 59W/60W TROPICAL WAVE. A 23N59W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEARBY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N24W 24N26W 19N30W. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 20W AND 41W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT