000 AXNT20 KNHC 280002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W AT 15-20 KT THROUGH THE CENTRAL TRPCL ATLC FROM 20N39W TO 10N39W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THERE IS ALSO A CLEARING IN THE WIDESPREAD SAHARAN AIR LAYER THAT IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC. A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS ALSO INDICATES THAT THERE IS LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE AXIS. DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF DUST NEAR THE WAVE...MOST DEEP CONVECTION IS SUPPRESSED EXCEPT FOR AREAS WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH WHERE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 37W-43W. TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING W AT 15-20 KT CURRENTLY FROM 20N56W TO 10N57W. THE WAVE LIES ON THE W SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE ITCZ REGION FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 54W-58W. SIMILAR RAIN IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 57W-62W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 23N90W TO 15N92W MOVING W AT 10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 87W-93W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU AT 12N16W TO 11N30W TO 9N40W TO 9N46W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N46W TO 12N50W TO THE COAST OF E VENEZUELA AT 9N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 18W-29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 29W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W. ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE MOSTLY A SLIGHT BREEZE AT 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE HIGH CENTER FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 88W-93W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. FURTHER S...A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 87W-93W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 96W-98W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 81W-82W...AND OVER W CUBA FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 82W-85W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND GUATEMALA FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 89W-95W. FURTHER S... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 76W-84W. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ARE JUST N OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...THE MONA PASSAGE...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N67W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER W CUBA. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SMALL 1018 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW ALONG 30N61W 28N63W 28N70W. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE FRONT. FURTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N51W TO 23N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N42W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. EXAMINING GOES-R PROVING GROUND DUST IMAGERY...THE ATLANTIC HAS THICK SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST LOCATED FROM 15N-28N BETWEEN E OF 45W...AND AN OLDER OUTBREAK OF DUST EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO 88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND W ATLANTIC TO 45W. EXPECT THE FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA