000 AXNT20 KNHC 270537 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUL 27 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 20N32W TO 10N34W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. W TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N48W TO 11N51W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM 22N88W TO 15N88W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 13N23W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N31W RESUMING W OF THE WAVE NEAR 9N35W ALONG 11N45W TO THE W TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N49W. THE ITCZ STARTS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 11N52W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-13N E OF 19W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 25W-42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 54W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO COVERING THE W GULF. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO OVER THE E GULF ALONG 21N90W TO APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA SUPPORTING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM S GEORGIA ALONG 30N83W INTO THE GULF WATERS TO 27N85W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO NEAR 26N92W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SE GULF AS WELL AS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF WILL GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY EARLY FRI AS THE ATLC RIDGE REBUILDS W ACROSS THE E GULF TO THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI AND SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N W OF 83W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A PAIR OF UPPER RIDGES DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER HATTI HAVE MOVED INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BUT ARE BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. W TROPICAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WELL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BETWEEN BERMUDA ND GEORGIA COAST COVERING THE AREA W OF 60W. A NARROWING UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 27/0300 UTC FROM A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 31N61W ALONG 28N62W 27N66W TO 28N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT S OF 29N E OF 65W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 25N BETWEEN 55W-70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC NEAR 32N43W ALONG 24N56W S OF THE ABOVE FRONT TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. W ATLC COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING AND WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N FRI THROUGH SUN REACHING ALONG 28N MON AND ALONG 29N TUE. TROPICAL WAVE PASS THROUGH THE W TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN ON SUN. SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ON TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW