000 AXNT20 KNHC 262352 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 20N31W TO 10N32W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS WITHIN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A LARGE PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST IS HOWEVER SUPPRESSING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N47W TO 11N49W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS WITHIN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS JUST E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N86W TO 15N87W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE EXHIBITS BROAD LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 83W-90W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU AT 12N16W TO 13N23W TO 10N33W TO 11N44W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N44W TO 12N50W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 8N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 15W-18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 30W-39W. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 50W-59W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE W ATLANTIC. WINDS ARE MOSTLY A SLIGHT BREEZE AT 10 KT. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND N FLORIDA FROM 31N84W TO 27N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER N FLORIDA FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 82W-87W. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS REMAIN ELSEWHERE E OF 90W AND N OF 28N. FURTHER S...A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA BETWEEN 76W-84W. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ARE JUST N OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER E NICARAGUA AND E HONDURAS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 83W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N62W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SMALL 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N63W A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW ALONG 29N63W 28N68W 30N72W. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE FRONT. FURTHER E...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 25N-32N E OF 45W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. EXAMINING GOES-R PROVING GROUND DUST IMAGERY...THE ATLANTIC HAS THICK SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST LOCATED FROM 15N-28N BETWEEN E OF 45W...AND AN OLDER OUTBREAK OF DUST EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO 88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND W ATLANTIC TO 45W. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA