000 AXNT20 KNHC 251145 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1135 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A 1010 MB LOW IS OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 13N21W MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 21W-24W. MID ATLC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N39W TO 13N43W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 19N74W TO 11N75W MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 20N81W TO 12N82W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRIER AIR AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N16W THROUGH THE 1010 MB LOW CONTINUING ALONG 12N25W 13N33W TO 11N41W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 7N50W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 25W-32W AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 44W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED NEAR 25N92W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N88W CONTINUING TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SW GEORGIA THROUGH TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO 28N85W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-92N BETWEEN 83W-86W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES ACROSS TEXAS INTO MEXICO N OF MEXICO CITY. A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 22N97W TO 18N95W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N W OF 94W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. NE GULF SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRI THEN WILL SHIFT N ACROSS FLORIDA SAT AND SUN. N PORTION OF W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE MOVE W THROUGH BAY OF CAMPECHE THU AND FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NE NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W TO E CUBA NEAR 20N76W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 OS LINE FROM 18N79W TO 17N84W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS COSTA RICA ALONG 10N GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-14N W OF 81W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 14N66W TO 16N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 11N BETWEEN 61W-64W INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF TRINIDAD. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. TROPICAL WAVE IN W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO W CARIBBEAN THU. THE MID ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING THE LOW DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS. THE LEADING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SAME LOW THROUGH 32N54W TO 28N59W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N64W TO 28N69W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN 60W-67W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE E/CENTRAL ATLC AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 33N41W ALONG 26N51W THEN W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30N TODAY AND WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH THU. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRI THEN WILL DRIFT N SAT AND SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW