000 AXNT20 KNHC 241750 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A 1012 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ABOUT 90 NM OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N17W. A WAVE AXIS WILL BE ADDED TO THIS FEATURE AS MODEL AND SATELLITE DATA BECOME MORE CONCLUSIVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 6N-16N BETWEEN THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AND 28W. TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 21N36W TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR 11N41W MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A DENSE REGION OF SAHARAN DUST LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE WAVE TO NEAR ZERO. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 17N67W TO 11N70W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16N71W TO 12N62W. THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SPREAD AS THE WAVE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND MONSOON TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN FROM 19N75W TO 12N77W. NO WAVE SIGNATURES/FEATURES ARE FOUND NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA THROUGH THE 1012 MB LOW DESCRIBED ABOVE CONTINUING WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 13N34W TO 8N45W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 7N50W TO NEAR THE CENTRAL COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N65W. CLUSTERS OF WEAK SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ W OF 28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE NE GULF SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING 1019 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 29N84W.... EMBEDDED IN A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE NRN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 30N84W TO 26N85W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N E OF 87W. THE ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WRN GULF PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFTING AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A FEW CLUSTERS OF WEAK SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N W OF 91W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WNW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16N71W TO 12N62W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR 13N79W. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N W OF 77W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN COLOMBIA TO THE PACIFIC WATERS S OF PANAMA. THE RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE WRN AND SW CARIBBEAN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LOW AND MONSOON TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND SAHARAN DUST ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N W OF 70W. TO THE EAST OF THIS AREA OF SHOWERS...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SSW INTO OUR DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N56W TO 26N63W GENERATING SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY N OF 28N BETWEEN 52W-70W. THESE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA SUPPORTING A WEAK 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N67W...A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 31N36W...AND A 1022 MB HIGH SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N23W. THE FAIR WEATHER IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE ENTIRE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA