000 AXNT20 KNHC 221757 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... MODEL GUIDANCE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMED THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE 1500 UTC SURFACE MAP WITH AXIS FROM 29N79W TO 23N81W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NW BAHAMAS...FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ERN GULF WATERS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 75W-83W TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WEST OF CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ANALYZED FROM 21N24W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 13N30W MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE LOW CENTER IS JUST A FEW MILES N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...ANY DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH. TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 19N65W TO 12N67W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN DRY AIR AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE S-WRN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE WRN ATLC. THUS...NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WAS MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...SRN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA EARLIER THIS MORNING IS NOW IN THE ERN TROPICAL PACIFIC. SEE PACIFIC HIGH SEAS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA IN WEST AFRICA NEAR 19N16W TO ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 13N25W 10N40W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 9N50W TO INLAND OVER GUYANA IN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM O EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ W OF 23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD OMEGA-LIKE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CONUS AND MOST OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE GULF...A FEW CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWN OVER THE NW AND CENTRAL WRN GULF N OF 23N W OF 90W ASSOCIATED TO A WEAK LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE NRN GULF STATES FROM ERN TO NRN GEORGIA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ENTERING THE FAR ERN GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE SE FLOW UP TO 15 KT IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY OVER THE NW GULF WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS WELL AS THE ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR ERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SW BASIN. THE OVERALL PATTERN IS INFLUENCED BY NW AND SE CONFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR SW IS ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN COLOMBIA TO THE SRN COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA AND WRN COSTA RICA. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN WITHOUT ANY IMPACTS. THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. THE ERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LEAVING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-27N W OF 75W. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 22N61W AND SUPPORTS SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE WRN ATLC ANCHORED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO THE WRN ATLC. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SAHARAN DUST COVERING MOST OF THE ATLC BASIN REACHING TO THE BAHAMAS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES N OF THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA