000 AXNT20 KNHC 221100 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N24W JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 14N26W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE LOW CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N64W TO 10N64W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 15N63W TO 21N69W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE S GULF OF MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N92W TO OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N91W TO EL SALVADOR MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO S MEXICO COVERING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 22N16W ALONG 19N21W THROUGH THE 1013 MB LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 14N26W CONTINUING ALONG 10N31W TO 10N38W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 9N49W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 26W-36W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 9N TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 48W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W GULF ANCHORED INLAND OVER S TEXAS. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NE TEXAS TO E LOUISIANA ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER TO 25N92W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED JUST S OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IN THE NW CARIBBEAN COVERING THE SE GULF AND EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WSW TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND COVERING THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 86W TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...CUBA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 29N87W TO 23N91W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N91W TO TUXPAN MEXICO. TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE SW GULF THROUGH TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 28N WILL DRIFT N THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN RETREAT SOUTHWARD TUE AND REDEVELOP ALONG 26N THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH WITH TWO EMBEDDED UPPER LOWS DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF VENEZUELA AND THE COLOMBIAN COAST THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 17N79W TO A SECOND UPPER LOW CENTERED S OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N85W. THIS IS GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE E CARIBBEAN SE FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-19N W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 9N FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA/ COSTA RICA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 78W TO INLAND FROM PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW ATLC COVERS THE GREATER ANTILLES PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N BETWEEN 74W-85W INCLUDING CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 22N68W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SW OF A LINE FROM 21N69W ALONG 24N75W TO 28N79W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...CUBA...S FLORIDA...THE ENTIRE BAHAMA CHAIN...AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N40W TO A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 28N62W TO NE FLORIDA THEN SW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SAHARAN DUST COVERING MOST OF THE ATLC BASIN REACHING TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MON NIGHT THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD TUE THROUGH THU AS A COLD FRONT PASSES N OF THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW