000 AXNT20 KNHC 200714 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012 CORRECTED WINDS AND SEAS INFORMATION FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N42W 13N44W 9N45W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 21N37W 17N46W 10N50W 8N57W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N69W 16N67W 13N65W... FROM THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TOWARD LA ISLA BLANQUILLA OF VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 69W. THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TROPICAL WAVE OF 16 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 22N96W TO 17N93W IN THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE WAVE SHOWS UP IN THE 700 MB AND 850 MB GFS FORECAST. THE TPW DATA SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE IN THE SAME AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N92W...ABOUT 75 NM OFFSHORE. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE THE GULF OF MEXICO...MEXICO...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 87W AND 97W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SAME AREA AS THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W...10N26W AND 9N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N37W TO 10N44W 10N47W 8N54W 8N61W...THROUGH NORTHERN GUYANA INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... NUMEROUS STRONG IS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 15W AND 17W... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 22W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF 48W... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N82W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THAT IS NEAR ALONG THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER... TO 29N84W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W. THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TROPICAL WAVE OF 16 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...FROM 22N96W TO 17N93W IN THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE WAVE SHOWS UP IN THE 700 MB AND 850 MB GFS FORECAST. THE TPW DATA SHOWS A PLUME OF MOISTURE IN THE SAME AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N92W...ABOUT 75 NM OFFSHORE. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE THE GULF OF MEXICO... MEXICO...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 87W AND 97W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE SAME AREA AS THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N105W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS MEXICO AND TEXAS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N NORTHWARD IN MEXICO. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 26N104W...AND WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 25N107W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 28N80W OFF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N88W...TO THE TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM 27N TO 28N. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 94W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N69W 16N67W 13N65W...FROM THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TOWARD LA ISLA BLANQUILLA OF VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 69W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N63W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 10N77W JUST OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 83W AND 84W. RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF CUBA BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 9N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 7N77W AT THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS COLOMBIA FROM THE COLOMBIA EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST NEAR 3N TO THE GULF OF URABA...BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...INCLUDING THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 4N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO 11N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W INCLUDING NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 11 FEET IN DIFFERENT AREAS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N63W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 10N77W JUST OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 83W AND 84W. RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF CUBA BETWEEN 60W AND 80W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 20N61W 14N63W 10N63W. NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT WITH THIS TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 30N70W...BEYOND FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND THE 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE FROM 16N TO 23N TO THE WEST OF 50W...AND THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 50W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 24N TO 30N TO THE EAST OF 50W...AND 20 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 19N TO 27N BETWEEN 40W AND 57W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT