000 AXNT20 KNHC 181119 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W FROM 12N TO 19N. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N53W 10N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N51W 14N54W 18N57W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W FROM 16N IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 82W. PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO ONLY THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN COASTAL SENEGAL... NEAR THE BORDER WITH GAMBIA...NEAR 14N17W...TO 12N23W 12N28W AND 10N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N34W TO 5N42W AND 4N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 32W AND 38W...DISORGANIZED AND ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 70W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N82W IN EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... FLORIDA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 78W AND 88W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 75W AND 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN 80W AND 93W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 93W. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N102W IN WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS RIO GRANDE VALLEY...TO 27N98W AND 24N97W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 93W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AT 48 HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 83W AND 94W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W FROM 16N IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 82W. PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO ONLY THE TROPICAL WAVE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 78W. THIS AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE 21N62W TO 22N78W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W. A SEPARATE BUT COMPARATIVELY WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 15N70W 11N76W...TO THE GULF OF URABA IN COASTAL COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N81W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 8N83W IN COASTAL PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...AND IN THE COLOMBIA EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PART OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE THAT COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FEET FROM 11N TO 18N TO THE WEST OF 64W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N57W TO A 29N59W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 27N60W...TO A 21N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N78W ALONG THE CUBA COAST THAT FACES THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO REACHES AS FAR AS 16N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 74W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 21N39W TO 16N44W TO 10N48W. NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT WITH THIS TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N41W TO 30N51W...28N73W... ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND THE 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 13N TO 23N BETWEEN 45W AND 64W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE BETWEEN 64W AND 75W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT