000 AXNT20 KNHC 171120 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. THE UPPER-AIR TIMESECTION DATA AND THE TPW DATA SHOW THAT A WAVE RECENTLY EMERGED FROM AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM GUINEA NEAR 10N TO SENEGAL AND GAMBIA NEAR 13N. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N47W 10N48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 25N77W IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA...TO 16N78W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W...BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED... GIVING WAY TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 27N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W TO 11N27W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N27W TO 9N33W 9N40W 8N47W AND 7N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 23W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 29W AND 46W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 46W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 70W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 30N81W... NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FLORIDA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...GEORGIA AND POSSIBLY SOUTH CAROLINA FROM 27N TO 33N BETWEEN 77W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 84W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. A SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N88W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 17N TO 25N BETWEEN 80W AND 92W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS BIG BEND INTO MEXICO NEAR 22N100W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE TEXAS-TO-MEXICO TROUGH AND THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N89W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN TEXAS AND MEXICO...AND IN THEIR COASTAL WATERS... TO THE SOUTH OF 32N BETWEEN 95W AND 103W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 48 HOUR FORECAST OF 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 94W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD NORTHEASTERN COASTAL COLOMBIA/NORTHWESTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N/9N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COLOMBIA EASTERN PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS FROM 4N TO 6N...AND IN PANAMA COASTAL WATERS FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PART OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE THAT COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 64W AND 85W. EXPECT 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST AT 24 HOURS AND AT 36 HOURS. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 24 AND 48 HOURS. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT 48 HOURS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...ALONG 32N55W TO 26N56W 21N60W...BEYOND 18N63W INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 26N55W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 22N30W TO 15N35W TO 12N39W. NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT WITH THIS TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N38W TO 27N50W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N66W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE 32N52W 26N55W SURFACE TROUGH AND 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 22N BETWEEN 42W AND 65W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT