000 AXNT20 KNHC 170601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUL 17 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. THE UPPER-AIR TIMESECTION DATA AND THE TPW DATA SHOW THAT A WAVE RECENTLY EMERGED FROM AFRICA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN NORTHWESTERN SENEGAL FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 15W AND 17W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N43W 14N45W 10N46W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 24N76W IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND EASTERN JAMAICA...TO 16N77W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EARLIER STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN JAMAICA AND IN HAITI HAS WEAKENED. EARLIER STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA HAS MOVED WESTWARD AND IT HAS BEEN WEAKENING WITH TIME. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS CONTINUING IN THE BAHAMAS AND IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 21N17W TO 15N20W 9N30W 9N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N38W TO 9N46W TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N30W 9N40W 10N45W 8N50W 7N59W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 70W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N81W... NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FLORIDA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...GEORGIA AND POSSIBLY SOUTH CAROLINA FROM 27N TO 33N BETWEEN 77W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 84W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ON THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. A SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N89W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 80W AND 92W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 93W...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS BIG BEND INTO MEXICO NEAR 22N100W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE TEXAS-TO-MEXICO TROUGH AND THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N89W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN MEXICO AND ITS COASTAL WATERS...TO THE SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 95W AND 102W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TOWARD NORTHEASTERN COASTAL COLOMBIA/NORTHWESTERN COASTAL VENEZUELA. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N82W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS DISSIPATED ALREADY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS BETWEEN 81W AND 82W WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 7N IN PANAMA COASTAL WATERS. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PART OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE THAT COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 83W. EXPECT 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST AT 24 HOURS AND AT 36 HOURS. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 48 HOURS. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT 48 HOURS. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...ALONG 32N55W TO 26N56W 21N60W...BEYOND 18N63W INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 27N54W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 50W AND 68W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 22N30W TO 15N35W TO 12N39W. NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT WITH THIS TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 27N50W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N66W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE 32N51W 27N54W SURFACE TROUGH AND 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 61W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT