000 AXNT20 KNHC 160604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUL 16 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE 53W/55W ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE FROM THE 15/1800 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS WAS DROPPED FROM THE 16/0000 UTC MAP BECAUSE OF LACK OF EVIDENCE OF ITS EXISTENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 33N36W TO 26N44W 20N53W TO 18N60W. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS THE TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N37W 10N39W. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP IN THE COMPOSITE TPW IMAGERY...AND IN LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 14N75W IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG PRECIPITATION IN HAITI AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED ALREADY. REMNANT SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN CUBA BETWEEN 79W AND 80W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 83W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GAMBIA TO 12N18W... 12N25W 10N34W AND 11N38W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N38W THROUGH 10N43W...INTO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL FRENCH GUIANA AND NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 7N TO 12N TO THE EAST OF 20W...FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 35W...FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W...AND FROM THE COASTS OF SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA TO 7N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 70W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N79W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 74W AND 84W. AN EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N85W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 92W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO 86W. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS BIG BEND INTO MEXICO NEAR 25N105W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 95W AND 101W... AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 25W TO THE WEST OF 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 73W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W 7N77W BEYOND 9N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED STRONG IN COLOMBIA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 8N75.5W... ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 81W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PART OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE THAT COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 19N BETWEEN 70W AND 83W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING FROM 8N TO 10N. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET...FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 42W AND 63W BETWEEN 63W AND 74W...EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WINDS TO 20 KNOTS... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT