000 AXNT20 KNHC 151735 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N53W TO 7N52W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM N OF HISPANIOLA AT 21N70W TO N VENEZUELA AT 11N69W MOVING W AT 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS IN AN BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GUINEA-BISSAU AT 12N16W TO 10N29W TO 7N34W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 7N34W TO 6N40W TO FRENCH GUIANA AT 5N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 14W-21W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 29W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AT 30N82W TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N82W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA...THE SE GULF...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 26N E OF 83W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 27N89W TO 19N90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER LOUISIANA AND THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 88W-92W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 25N W OF 95W. THE GULF HAS PREDOMINATELY 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 25N84W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AT 31N99W. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE ENHANCING RAIN AND SHOWERS. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGHS TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. FURTHER W...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM E HONDURAS TO PANAMA FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 80W-85W MOVING W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 81W-87W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF COLOMBIA NEAR 13N77W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER CUBA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS N OF 20N W OF 70W MOSTLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N78W. A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA AT 34N64W. ANOTHER 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 42N17W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THIS HIGH TO 34N40W TO THE BERMUDA HIGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AT 33N38W...31N59W...AND 31N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 55W-62W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA