000 AXNT20 KNHC 150549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N51W TO 10N45W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 20N65W TO 10N64W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS MOVING INTO AN BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W ALONG 10N24W TO 8N33W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 10N30W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N43W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 8N46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-14N E OF 20W THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 26W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A NARROW UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER E TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER E TENNESSEE EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TO 24N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS AT 15/0300 UTC FROM S MISSISSIPPI NEAR 31N89W INTO THE GULF TO NEAR 25N88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 24N80W TO A SMALL UPPER LOW NEAR MERIDA ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 24N W OF 84W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR SE GULF FROM 23N86W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N TO INLAND OVER CUBA BETWEEN 83W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE NW AND DISSIPATE BY SUN AS A SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE AREA MOVES S INTO THE NE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE S GULF EXTENDS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 72W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO 17N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 18N TO INLAND OVER HAITI AND CUBA BETWEEN 72W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N TO OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 79W-83W. THE TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 70W. TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT TO ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN BY MON AND TUE. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MON AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 31N75W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS AT 15/0300 UTC FROM N OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N65W ALONG 31N71W TO 27N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE TROUGH W OF 70W AND N OF 27N W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE E CONUS COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE FLORIDA COAST AND TO OVER CUBA AND HAITI. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE AZORES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TROUGH 32N47W TO 24N69W AND A SECOND STRONGER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W ALONG 35N GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SURGE OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS FROM 14N-33N E OF 40W AND FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN 40W-65W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE NW AND BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION BY LATE SUN ALLOWING THE SURFACE RIDGE TO BEGIN TO SLIDE S SUN NIGHT TO ALONG 28N MON THROUGH WED AS A HIGH CENTER DEVELOPS NEAR 28N64W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW