000 AXNT20 KNHC 141045 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 16N42W TO 8N40W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ANY CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 20N60W TO 9N56W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 56W-59W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF A LINE FROM 12N60W OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 16N61W TO 21N62W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W TO 11N27W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 11N34W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 10N39W THEN RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 8N43W ALONG 6N50W THEN S OF THE NEXT WAVE TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-13N E OF 26W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND FROM THE ITCZ TO 10N BETWEEN 48W-53W WITH SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 150 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 31W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A NARROW UPPER TROUGH DIPS S ACROSS E TEXAS AND NE MEXICO COVERING THE FAR W CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 25N W OF 93W AND FROM 25N-29N W OF 90W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS. AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NE GULF TO 27N89W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS AT 14/0900 UTC FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA ALONG 29N86W 27N86W TO 25N88W. A SECOND SMALLER SURFACE TROUGH AT 14/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO 27N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS BEING DISPLACED BY AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE S GULF CENTERED NEAR 23N91W. THE LONG SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE NW TO THE N CENTRAL GULF THIS AFTERNOON THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE NW GULF SUN NIGHT AND MON. HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE AREA WILL SLIDE S AND WEAKEN AS IT REACHES NEAR 27N MON THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LOW OVER THE S GULF EXTENDS S OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC COVERS N CARIBBEAN N OF 19N ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM PUERTO RICO TO CUBA GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 74W-84W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS S PANAMA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF A LINE FROM 12N72W 11N79W TO ACROSS PANAMA/COAST RICA NEAR 10N82W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 73W. THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TODAY. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG BREEZE OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN BY MON AND TUE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE THEN INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS DOMINATE THE W ATLC...ONE CENTERED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA NEAR 25N79W AND A MUCH LARGER ONE CENTERED NEAR 28N71W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING AT 14/0900 UTC FROM S OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N66W ALONG 27N69W TO 23N71W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE W ATLC S OF 32N BETWEEN 60W-79W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES AND A 1031 MB HIGH BETWEEN THE AZORES AND BERMUDA NEAR 35N45W WITH A RIDGE AXIS CONTINUING W ALONG 35N GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SURGE OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS FROM 14N-35N E OF 35W AND FROM 10N-26N BETWEEN 35W-60W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST N OF THE AREA THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON THEN WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE S SUN NIGHT. IT WILL BE NEAR 28N MON THROUGH WED AS A HIGH CENTER MOVES SW TO NEAR 28N64W. THE W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL REACH FROM 30N75W TO 23N77W EARLY TONIGHT FROM 30N78W TO 26N79W BY SUN AFTERNOON THEN BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE FAR NW PORTION SUN SUN NIGHT INTO MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW