000 AXNT20 KNHC 122357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 17N24W TO 9N27W. THE WAVE AXIS LIES WITHIN A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N45W TO 9N45W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE AXIS LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 9N45W WHERE RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 29N82W TO NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT THE BAHAMAS AT 20N82W MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA...AND W CUBA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SENEGAL AT 14N17W TO 12N19W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 8N30W TO 6N40W TO 9N45W TO SURINAME AT 6N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 14W-19W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 30N. 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ARE OVER THE GULF. AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL INLAND OVER THE N GULF STATES. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER FLORIDA AND W CUBA. SEE ABOVE. FURTHER W...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST AT 30N92W TO THE TEXAS COAST AT 28N96W MOVING E. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N89W. RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 85W-91W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT A SURFACE TROUGH TO BE OVER THE TEXAS COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER MOST OF N VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT... CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER CUBA...THE S CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA S OF NICARAGUA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 72W-80W MOSTLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N74W. A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE AZORES AT 36N37W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 32N70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A SERIES OF SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AT 33N42W...26N64W...AND 27N74W. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 44W-62W. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA