000 AXNT20 KNHC 111132 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS ALONG 37W FROM 12N-22N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH AN AREA OF DRIER AIR BEING INTRODUCED ACROSS THE S PORTION OF THE WAVE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SAHARAN DUST IS TRAILING THE WAVE LIMITING CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 25N72W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 19N74W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 68W-74W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 19N16W ALONG 14N22W TO JUST E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N33W. THE ITCZ AXIS RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N39W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 5N24W TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA NEAR 9N13W AND FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 34W-42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 45W-49W AND FROM 6N-10N W OF 54W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT SW/NW MEXICO EXTENDING AN AXIS ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE SE GULF CENTERED NEAR 23N88W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NW TO CEDAR KEY FLORIDA AND SW TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE NE GULF AT 11/0900 UTC TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA ALONG 27N87W TO 23N88W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS INLAND OVER THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N BETWEEN 91W-96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SE GULF FROM 24N-26N E OF 83W ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT ACROSS FLORIDA. SE SURFACE FLOW COUPLED WITH THE OPPOSING FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA AND N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF THU STALLING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO SE TEXAS THU NIGHT AND THEN MOVE BACK NW OF AREA ON FRI. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL ENTER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON THU INTO THE CENTRAL GULF SAT AND ACROSS THE SW GULF ON SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS TO OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS N OF 19N TO INLAND OVER CUBA BETWEEN 76W-80W. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WITH STRONG WINDS OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 85W FROM HONDURAS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 10N FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS E OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW COUPLED WITH THE OPPOSING FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 17N E OF 70W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND THU PASSING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE FRI. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ON SAT THROUGH SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLC FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE E ATLC NEAR 30N33W THROUGH A LOW NEAR 25N56W TO A THIRD NEAR 30N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 27N W OF 77W TO INLAND OVER S FLORIDA AND A PORTION OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST N OF THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 66W-74W AND FURTHER E FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 55W-61W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N OF 32N E OF BERMUDA THEN DROPPING S ALONG 29N71W TO JUST TO OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ANOTHER SURGE OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST HAS EMERGED OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC FROM 10N-30N E OF 30W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N TO ALONG 30N TONIGHT THEN N OF THE AREA THROUGH REMAINDER OF WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE CENTRAL ATLC ON FRI NIGHT AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW